Scientists create first map of global emerging disease hotspots

In a paper published by the leading scientific journal Nature, scientists at the Consortium for Conservation Medicine (CCM) Wildlife Trust New York, the Zoological Society of London (ZSL), Columbia University (New York) and the University of Georgia have announced a major breakthrough in the understanding of what causes diseases like HIV/AIDS and SARS to emerge, and how to further predict and prevent future devastating pandemics by plotting a global map of `Emerging Disease Hotspots.`

The research provides the first-ever definitive proof that emerging diseases are on the rise, and that zoonoses - diseases that originate in animals - are the current and most important threat to humans. Scientists analyzed 335 incidents of previous disease emergence to identify the regions where future diseases are most likely to erupt. Emerging diseases are diseases that appear in people or move into new regions for the first time. They include diseases such as West Nile virus, SARS, Ebola, H5N1 Avian influenza and others that emerge from animals. Disease emergence also occurs in developed nations due to antibiotic multi-drug resistance, leading to diseases such as extremely drug-resistant TB (XDR TB) and also from centralized food processing, and other technologies.

Emerging diseases have caused devastating outbreaks internationally, and some have become pandemic, spreading from one continent to another causing massive mortality rates and affecting global economies and livelihoods. The HIV/AIDS pandemic has led to over 65 million people infected worldwide, and the financial cost of the SARS outbreak is estimated between $50 and $100 billion. Despite billions of dollars of research over the past three decades, previous attempts to explain the seemingly random patterns of emergence and spread were unsuccessful. This research examines over 50 years of disease emergence patterns and provides the first set of insights into where future outbreaks may occur.

In this study, scientists from four major institutions combined forces to build a database of all previously reported emerging diseases. In this three-year study, they researched and identified the most likely point of origin and underlying cause of each separate emergence event. The team then used sophisticated computer models to analyze whether the pattern of emerging diseases correlated with global patterns in human population density, changes in population, latitude, rainfall, and wildlife biodiversity. Finally, results were plotted against a measure of global effort to identify new diseases, to produce the first maps of where the next new emerging diseases are likely to originate. `This Emerging Disease Hotspots map is the first to provide a scientific prediction of where the next major disease like HIV or SARS will emerge`, says Dr. Peter Daszak, who directed the study, and is corresponding author of the paper and Executive Director of the Consortium for Conservation Medicine at Wildlife Trust, New York. `These maps show that the key threat to public health is where human population growth and wildlife diversity clash`, he added. Dr. Kate Jones, of ZSL, lead author of the paper, commented, `Our analysis highlights the critical importance of conservation work. Protecting areas rich in wildlife diversity from development may also have a significant effect in preventing future disease emergence`.

The group`s analyses reveal a range of other new information about this deadly threat to global health. They show that more diseases emerged in the 1980s than any other decade. `This is likely due to the global HIV/AIDS pandemic, which led to a range of other new diseases in people,` says Marc Levy of CIESIN, Columbia University. Unfortunately, the overall trend is that emerging diseases have increased significantly from the 1940s to the current decade. `We also see a significant peak in vector-borne diseases in the 1990s, which may relate to climate change anomalies, but we can`t be certain about the cause`, Dr. Levy added.

Dr. John Gittleman, professor and dean in the University of Georgia`s Odum School of Ecology, who developed this approach to analyzing global databases stated that, `This is a seminal moment in how we study emerging diseases. Our study has shown that bringing ecological sciences and public health together can advance the field in a dramatic way`. The paper comments that the Emerging Disease Hotspots map provides a way to better allocate global resources to fight emerging diseases. `Our hotspots map show that the next new important zoonotic disease is likely to originate in the Tropics - a region rich in wildlife species and under increasing pressure from people,` said Dr. Daszak. `The problem is, most of our resources are focused on the richer countries in the North that can afford surveillance - this is basically a misallocation of global health funding and our priority should be to set up `smart surveillance` measures in these hotspots, most of which are in developing countries. If we continue to ignore this important preventative measure then human populations will continue to be at risk from pandemic diseases.`

The dams also put at great risk indigenous Naso and Ngobe communities that have lived for generations in La Amistad`s buffer zone. With increasing pressure from the government and the corporations, the situation for indigenous peoples has become increasingly perilous, leading in some cases to brutal repression by police forces. On January 3, 2008, more than 50 Ngobe people from the village of Charco la Pava were beaten and imprisoned for protesting the dams and the fact that their village had been destroyed. The use of police repression by the government, according to Susana Serracin, a Panamanian lawyer assisting the Ngobe, `is violating human rights by illegally accosting and incarcerating indigenous people in order to `clear` the area to permit work on the hydroelectric dams to proceed.`

The World Heritage Centre/IUCN visit will occur during the week of February 18, 2008, during which the delegation will meet with government agencies from both countries, as well as other groups concerned with the future of La Amistad. The Center for Biological Diversity will continue assisting the efforts of environmental and indigenous groups in Panama and will be present to discuss with the delegation. The visit will focus on the incompatibility of constructing dams near World Heritage sites and maintaining the sites` integrity.